The United Nations has described the transition to net zero as ‘one of the greatest challenges’ humankind has faced.
Whilst regional Australia is no stranger to great challenges, we stand at the precipice of enormous change when it comes to power.
Yet ‘power’ can have many definitions.
It can direct or influence the behaviour of others, or a course of events.
It can supply energy.
It can also describe something moving with speed or force.
Those definitions all define regional Australia at this very moment in time.
Right now, we have an opportunity to change the course of history – to create a new balance of power.
And today, I stand before you to affirm that regional Australia can and will influence this transformation.
Regional Australia is the new frontier.
Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Regions Rising National Summit: The New Frontier.
I would like to start by acknowledging the Ngunnawal and Ngambri people, as the Traditional Owners of the land on which we meet here today.
I also acknowledge the Traditional Owners of the land, from which you, our audience, come.
I also acknowledge RAI Chairman Christian Zahra, The Hon. Kristy McBain and perhaps, most importantly of all, my mum Marie, who has come all the way from Deniliquin to be with me today.
The transition to net zero emissions will have a profound impact on the nation’s economy, our society and the environment - and regional Australia sits at the heart of this change and this challenge.
But the clock is ticking.
It’s been almost a decade since the Paris Agreement was adopted, paving the way for a global effort to aim for net zero emissions by 2050.
The Federal Government has made binding nationwide emission reduction targets, and voluntary commitments to increase renewable electricity generation to 82% by 2030.
In 2030, just six short years away, the first interim targets will be upon us.
In Australia, the aim is to have emissions 43% below 2005 levels.
The Australian Energy Market Operator also estimates electricity consumption will double by 2050.
The scale and significance of the net zero transformation has been likened to the post war construction effort.
This, however, is not a standalone challenge.
Fossil fuels make up 30% of total exports, yet we must understand that 97% of the countries who rely on those exports have also moved to net zero commitments.
For an emissions intensive country like Australia, we must create new sources of wealth from industries powered by renewable energy.
This transformation is not easy, but it is happening and participation is mandatory.
The Dyer Review commissioned by the Federal Government presented its findings in February, and it clearly articulated the divergent range of perspectives.
Importantly, it also correctly identified the transition cannot succeed without community participation and effective engagement over a long and sustained period of time.
So, in the weeks, months and years to come the conversations about what a just transition will mean are going to intensify.
If we are to be successful, we need to ask some serious questions of the net zero pathway in front of us.
Will it provide the gigawatts our nation will need in the decades to come?
Will it effectively decarbonise and meet the net zero targets for future generations?
And will it support the right settings to create a meaningful economic and social legacy in regional Australia?
The regions have spoken and the target towards net zero cannot occur at any cost.
This is why we have a giant conundrum.
Regional Australia is critical to our nation’s transition to meet net zero.
It’s where the wind, solar, transmission and battery projects are, and will be built.
To create that new low-carbon power, we also need another type of power.
People power.
In just six short years, 240,000 additional workers will be needed across 38 critical occupations... 600,000 by 2050.
An extraordinary number of these roles will be in the regions.
With those workers comes partners, children, families and their all-important skills.
But they will need houses to live in, daycare centres and schools to attend, health and community services to access and reliable telecommunications connections.
Locals will also need to be upskilled, with new career pathways emerging.
The RAI’s Regional Job Vacancy Index shows regional Australia has experienced record vacancy rates.
In fact, vacancies doubled in the past five years, only showing recent signs of easing.
While this demand for skills has increased, our nation has also undergone a major societal shift in terms of the regional renaissance.
Population settlement patterns continue to shift at a rate of knots and the palpable desire to move to more is here to stay.
Between 2018 and 2023, the regional population grew by 6.2%.
This shift is transformational.
The RAI’s latest Regional Movers Index, powered by the Commonwealth Bank, showed the highest level of city to regional movement in the past 12 months - 20% above pre-pandemic levels.
Within this shift, millennials are most on the move.
The regions were caught unawares at this great city to country migration supercharged by the pandemic.
Yet, despite this, our nation remains without a commitment to plan for population settlement.
As to why not is bewildering to the RAI.
A population plan could so easily be part of the billions of dollars invested in the energy transition.
Let me be very clear, regional Australia is facing two transitions simultaneously and they are reshaping our nation.
Undoubtedly, this presents both challenge and opportunity.
Opportunity not to squander.
If we succeed, it’s a win – a win for the almost 40% of Australians who call the regions home and the one in five capital city Australians we know are regionally curious.
So, what does success look like?
It’s not utopia, it’s not grandiose, it’s just and it’s entirely possible if we work together.
The RAI has a vision for thriving regions with equitable access to homes, healthcare, schools and childcare.
For strong investment in infrastructure and connectivity and new regionally headquartered businesses that underpin the local economies all over Australia.
Importantly, the regions must benefit from the renewable energy transition and have a genuine seat at the table.
At the Regional Australia Institute, our mission is to empower regions to thrive, but this work is never done in isolation.
This is why we launched the at this Summit two years ago.
A framework, unlike anything else we’ve seen, with a vision to rebalance the nation.
Regionalisation Ambition 2032: A 20-goal, 10-year framework that establishes a holistic, bipartisan and inclusive plan which looks at five key areas: Jobs and Skills, Population, Liveability, Productivity and Innovation, and Sustainability and Resilience.
It contains all the elements, that if elevated, will help drive the net zero transition.
They are all interconnected and they require a systems-change approach.
The plan maps in black and white the collective effort needed to ‘rebalance our nation’ and create a more prosperous and equitable Australia.
Regional Australia cannot and will not deliver what is required for the net zero transition, if it does not have the people, support and resources needed to thrive.
This is not a threat. This is a fact.
Less than 24 hours ago, I was proud to unveil to the media and our members the RAI’s latest body of research: Towards Net Zero: Empowering Regional Communities.
This research is part of the RAI’s Intergovernmental Shared Inquiry Program and made possible by support from the Federal Government and their counterparts in almost every state and territory.
The report has a very clear narrative.
We must equip ourselves with the skills and knowledge needed to navigate these unchartered waters.
Unless regional communities understand the need for change.
Unless they are provided shared benefit and local decision making.
Unless they can be prominent and active partners in this transition, Australia’s net zero target is under threat.
All levels of government and industry must pick up the pace, with information flow, planning and to enhance the service provision required by regions.
Regions must unite and step into the opportunity before them.
Australia currently ranks seventh (out of 40) on the Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index. But, despite 2022 being a record year for renewable energy project commitments, Australia has an uphill climb to reach its 2030 target.
Across the country, many regional communities are facing challenges and opportunities as they make the social, economic, technological, environmental and cultural transition.
Significant research into the potential impacts of net zero has been undertaken, yet until now, how to best enable and empower regional communities through what a just and fair transition has been ignored.
This report shines the spotlight six regions which are navigating the economic transition and the lessons they are learning.
We know the experience is varied across the country, we know there are already legacy projects underway, in other regions the journey to net zero is just beginning.
If you look just at what this happening in Victoria alone, the story is very different in two areas.
In the Wimmera Southern Mallee region of Victoria, there are existing solar and wind farms operating in the region with plans to significantly expand operations.
However capacity, community support and investor certainty remain the key critical challenge facing the transition in this part of the country.
Meanwhile to the east, in the Wellington Shire, local councillors tell us that their community has seen the need for positive change in relation to renewables.
Early steps are being taken to support emerging opportunities, with particular focus on supporting local business that are early adopters and pursuing new ventures.
To give all regions a fighting chance to play their part in achieving the targets set out and to meet projected energy demands, it will take everything to go right.
A juggernaut of energy proponents is either already on the ground in regions or on the way.
There is no denying the mixed perceptions, but there is also hope, goodwill and curiosity and about the opportunities.
Despite the challenges, regional leaders told us they are building a coalition of change agents at a local level.
Importantly, they are highlighting the need to move away from individual landholder benefits to build collective community benefits.
Understanding the local context, its people and its history can build credibility locally, with that goodwill is instilled.
Yet, this doesn’t take away from the reported confusion, sense of helplessness and lack of control about their own backyard in other regions.
When there is a vacuum of information it will be filled with misinformation.
This is why we must do better.
There is a burning platform.
Regional Australia is not homogenous and different places require different responses.
The Empowering Regional Communities report is the third in our net zero series and the key learnings supported inclusive governance structure to underpin the transition.
Goodwill is possible but it requires deep and local engagement from the outset providing practical information that can be accessed, understood and translated into benefit.
And it requires trust.
Communities want information on how these projects will impact on their communities and their economies and how it will be managed.
Is there a plan to ensure more people coming into the region doesn’t make service provision worse?
How will a new investment impact their business if it bids up wages and attracts workers from other regional businesses?
They also want to know how they can participate in these projects within supply chains and through employment and skills development to create lasting regional development.
Claims about additional local jobs or benefits sharing from projects need to be backed up with actions because, based on previous experience, often people don’t believe it.
A shift from traditional ‘top-down’ approaches to more decentralised and participatory approaches that can provide local opportunities, in an efficient manner and prioritise equity for all Australians.
Regional communities want to ‘grow their own workforce’, creating visible employment pathways for young people, reducing demand for fly and drive-in workforces and stimulating local economies.
Most importantly, regions want investment in key long term infrastructure liveability measures such as housing, workforce, education, childcare and connectivity to build a lasting legacy for their residents.
This will provide better compensation for the enormous role they play in this economic evolution.
Community acceptance and participation will have a significant impact on the cost, timing and success of transition activities.
Without strategic coordination and collaboration between these three major players - industry, government and regional communities - this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to strengthen and rebalance the nation will be lost.
So what policy action is needed?
The transition to a low carbon future requires a suite of policy mechanisms which can minimise negative feedback and increase the understanding of the interactions between policy process and community dynamics.
Therefore, the creation of a Net Zero Framework that builds on the vision, objectives and goals, while providing an accompanying dashboard with detailed targeted, methods and dates.
The establishment of a Regional Prosperity Collective bringing together government, industry and community to ensure the private sector investment is matched by government investment through a ‘regional deal’ concept, using local knowledge to guide the social infrastructure investment.
A Local Legacy Fund, in circumstances where local community benefit is not sufficient or aligned with the Regional Prosperity Collective, ensuring regional areas don’t miss out on vital social legacy uplift.
An Energy Transition Hub to provide practical, customised advice and where appropriate referrals to specialist services.
Finally, a stronger co-ordination role in local net zero transition strategic planning for regional leadership bodies to help support local governments.
Noting that all are resource constrained, additional investment to support regional transition is needed for this distinct purpose.
If regional Australia is to drive net zero, then the actors behind the steering wheel need all of the above.
Do that, and the power you could yield to unify, to lead, to reshape the future will be immense.
In closing, regional Australia is at the forefront of our nation’s future.
But we need to be prioritised in the minds of powerful decision makers in government, in big business, across industries.
Regional specific policies, programs and initiatives continue to be fragmented, with siloed approaches the norm.
It’s time for those in power to use that immense responsibility and privilege, that leadership that has been bestowed upon them, to deliver the change, support and funding regional Australia needs to deliver the power our nation needs.
Regional people must be at centre of decision making, experiencing firsthand the dividend of investment boom.
There is much at stake.
We cannot simply roll the dice on our energy security, nor can we roll the dice on the nation’s backbone – regional Australia.
All aspects of the system must be empowered.
We are staring down the barrel of our future.
If we can use this once-in-a-generation transformation to change lives for the better, change communities for the better, change society for the better.
Then that is the best kind of power.
Power can have many definitions - together let’s build the new frontier.
The RAI’s Regions Rising National Summit: The New Frontier is being held at the National Convention Centre Canberra (NCCC) between 14-15 August. Full program here.
Media are invited to attend. A livestream link for the National Summit is available upon request.
Regional Australia Institute
Melinda Hayter
Ph: 0498 373 300
E: [email protected]